An Empirical Study on the Steady States of Per-Capita Output of Some Typical "Middle Income Trap" Countries and China

Abstract: Based on a sample of 114 countries and regions, this paper uses the econometric method to show, in terms of steady state of per-capita output, the relative positions of Brazil, Mexico, Malaysia, Turkey and South Africa in the sample generally remained slightly lower than the average level of the sample in the 1970-2019 period; China's relative position in the sample was extremely low in 1970s, then continued to rise rapidly and caught up with the overall level of the above five countries in 2010s. Thus, even in terms of steady state of per-capita output, the above five countries were still typical "middle income trap" countries in the 1970-2019 period while China was not, but China started to face the "middle income trap" in 2010s. From the perspective of steady state of per-capita output, this paper also gives some suggestions respectively for the above five countries and China to cross the "middle income trap" in the future. Keywords: "Middle Income Trap" Country, China, Steady State of Per-Capita Output, Conditional Convergence, Social Infrastructure JEL Classification Number: C12, C13, C23, E1